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Prediction for CME (2020-10-27T03:39:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-10-27T03:39Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/15988/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with a filament eruption from N30E10 of the Earth-facing disk shortly after 2020.10.26T22:30Z and can be seen in all SDO imagery. The strongest darkening can be seen in SDO 193 and 211 between 2020.10.26T22:30Z and 2020.10.27T01:33Z. Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: I see clear flux rope signatures on Nov 1-2. The whole structure duration is 11/01 ~12:00 UT to 11/02 ~6:00 UT. The maximum magnetic field strength would be less than 10 nT, but it is higher than the average of the ambient magnetic field. There is a smooth and coherent change in the magnetic field direction with signatures of internal complexity. Low temperature, density and signatures of expansion in the solar wind bulk velocity. This is probably a streamer blowout.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-11-01T08:41Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-10-30T21:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2020-10-27T13:30Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 420 km/s
Longitude (deg): 10E
Latitude (deg): 2N
Half-angular width (deg): 29 deg

Notes: The CME appeared as an asymmetrical halo on SOHO C2/C3, and quite faint on Stereo A. Analysis gave speeds between about 370 and 450 km/s. WSA ENLIL suggests an arrival time around 1800-2100Z, the ensemble spread suggests plus or minus 9 hours. May give Active periods, lower chance (20%) of Kp=5.
Space weather advisor: MOSWOC

Lead Time: 89.18 hour(s)
Difference: 35.68 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2020-10-28T15:30Z

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